Juve Stabia vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juve Stabia lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Carrarese — key trading statistics (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.21 xG and Carrarese 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / defence 0.969 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 48 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 28%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Carrarese 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Juve Stabia 1.21 / Carrarese 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.872 / def 0.969 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Carrarese xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Carrarese kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese part of?
Juve Stabia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 39% chance of winning, Carrarese a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Juve Stabia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 2 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.81x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.03
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.18
0.97
Carrarese xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.97 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 15W 20D 13L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 13W 15D 20L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.12 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (9W 9D 4L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 6D 13L from 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 15W 20D 13L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Carrarese away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.64 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Carrarese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juve Stabia) and 59% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Carrarese in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 59% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 59% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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