Cremonese vs Empoli – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Empoli at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Empoli stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.20 PPG versus Empoli's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Empoli in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 40% versus Empoli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Empoli 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.21 xG and Empoli 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.837 / defence 0.962 | Empoli attack 0.903 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Cremonese games / 48 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Empoli 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Empoli 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 40% | Empoli 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 37% | Draw 32% | Empoli 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Cremonese 1.21 / Empoli 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.837 / def 0.962 | Empoli attack 0.903 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Empoli xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Empoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Empoli is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
Where is Cremonese vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Empoli part of?
Cremonese vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 37% chance of winning, Empoli a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cremonese and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.84x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.09
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
Empoli xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.07 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 13D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.02 PPG from 48 outings (11W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.96 PPG, Empoli on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 5W 8D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.79 points per game from 24 outings (5W 4D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.19 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 11W 13D 24L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Empoli have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Empoli away?
Cremonese's home record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.96 PPG; Empoli away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Empoli in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Empoli?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Empoli 1-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Empoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 46%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 58% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 42% of games; Empoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cremonese's recent matches and 54% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 58% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Empoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Empoli in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.