Cesena 2-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cosenza make the trip to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi to face Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Cosenza have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cesena against 1.20 for Cosenza. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cesena have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 62% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 50% | Cosenza 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.45 xG and Cosenza 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.177 / defence 1.257 | Cosenza attack 1.169 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.102. Data: 16 Cesena games / 54 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 32% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 40%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Cosenza 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 62% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 32% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Cesena 1.45 / Cosenza 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.177 / def 1.257 | Cosenza attack 1.169 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Cosenza xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Cosenza kick off?
Cesena vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Cosenza?
Cesena 2 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Cesena vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Cosenza part of?
Cesena vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 32% chance of winning, Cosenza a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cesena and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Cosenza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Cosenza in?
Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.18) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.17x) against Cesena's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
32%
3.09
28%
3.61
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Cesena xG
Total xG
3.06
1.62
Cosenza xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cesena and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Cesena and 1.62 for Cosenza, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza's form line: 4W 8D 4L from 16 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Cesena against 1.25 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cesena have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 1L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cesena are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 4W 8D 4L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Cosenza away?
Cesena's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.00 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Cesena or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cosenza in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cesena
0
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Cosenza?
From 2 meetings on record, Cesena have won 2, Cosenza have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Cosenza?
Cesena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 57%, Cosenza 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cesena) and 43% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cesena's games and 71% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cesena's recent games and 43% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Cosenza tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cesena defy the odds to beat Cosenza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena beat Cosenza 2-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.45 xG and Cosenza 1.62 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.18 / defence 1.26 against Cosenza attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 32% | Draw 28% | Cosenza 40%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cesena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 50%, Cosenza 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.38 PPG, Cosenza 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cesena win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.