Carrarese 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Sampdoria at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Carrarese have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Sampdoria have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carrarese at 1.10 PPG versus Sampdoria's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Sampdoria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 46% versus Sampdoria 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Sampdoria 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.57 xG and Sampdoria 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.988 / defence 1.176 | Sampdoria attack 0.986 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Carrarese games / 71 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 32%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Sampdoria 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Carrarese 1.57 / Sampdoria 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.988 / def 1.176 | Sampdoria attack 0.986 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Sampdoria xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Sampdoria kick off?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Carrarese 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Carrarese vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Sampdoria part of?
Carrarese vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 41% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Carrarese and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 1 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.58
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.95
1.37
Sampdoria xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.37 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 9W 11D 13L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Sampdoria's form line: 7W 14D 12L from 33 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 2W 8D 6L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.06 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 7W 14D 12L in their last 33 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Sampdoria away?
Carrarese's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.62 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Sampdoria runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Carrarese's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carrarese
1
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Carrarese 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Sampdoria?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 38%, Sampdoria 81% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 62% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Carrarese's games and 81% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Carrarese vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 62% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Carrarese edge out Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.57 xG and Sampdoria 1.37 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.99 / defence 1.18 against Sampdoria attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 41% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 32%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Sampdoria 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.15 PPG, Sampdoria 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.