Carrarese 3-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Cittadella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Cittadella at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.89 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cittadella have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.89 PPG (Carrarese) versus 0.90 (Cittadella). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Carrarese in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cittadella in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 44% versus Cittadella 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carrarese 33% | Cittadella 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.09 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.709 / defence 0.969 | Cittadella attack 0.783 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.182. Carrarese's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cittadella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Carrarese games / 47 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 37% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 27%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Cittadella 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Carrarese are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 25% | Cittadella 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 37% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Carrarese 1.09 / Cittadella 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.709 / def 0.969 | Cittadella attack 0.783 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cittadella xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Cittadella kick off?
Carrarese vs Cittadella kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Carrarese 3 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Carrarese vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Cittadella part of?
Carrarese vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 37% chance of winning, Cittadella a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Carrarese and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cittadella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Cittadella in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cittadella (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.71x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
37%
2.68
36%
2.81
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Carrarese xG
Total xG
1.99
0.90
Cittadella xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.90 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carrarese come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cittadella sit at 1.00 PPG from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 0.89 PPG, Cittadella on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carrarese's home form reads 1W 2D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Cittadella have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Cittadella travel well.
The Goals Picture
Carrarese are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Cittadella away?
Cittadella's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.25 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cittadella in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carrarese and Cittadella runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
0
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Cittadella?
From 2 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Cittadella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Cittadella 0-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Cittadella?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carrarese tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carrarese 25% BTTS, Cittadella 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Carrarese and 25% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cittadella in 50%; Carrarese have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Cittadella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Carrarese's recent matches and 25% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Carrarese's recent games and 25% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Cittadella tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Carrarese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Cittadella 3-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.09 xG and Cittadella 0.90 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cittadella landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.71 / defence 0.97 against Cittadella attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 37% | Draw 36% | Cittadella 27%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 33%, Cittadella 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cittadella's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 0.89 PPG, Cittadella 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.