Bari 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 35 as Bari welcome Modena to Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Bari's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Modena — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Modena have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bari) versus 1.40 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bari, 1 for Modena and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 61% versus Modena 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 37% | Modena 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.25 xG and Modena 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.974 / defence 0.895 | Modena attack 0.941 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.183. Data: 71 Bari games / 71 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 27%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Modena 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Bari 1.25 / Modena 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.974 / def 0.895 | Modena attack 0.941 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Bari (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Modena xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Modena kick off?
Bari vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Modena?
Bari 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Bari vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Modena part of?
Bari vs Modena is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 40% chance of winning, Modena a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bari and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
Record (5 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 3 | Modena 1W.
What form are Bari and Modena in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.97) and Modena's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.07
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bari xG
Total xG
2.25
1.00
Modena xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bari and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bari and 1.00 for Modena, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 17W 34D 20L from 71 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 19W 31D 21L across 71 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.20 PPG, Modena on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 12W 18D 6L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 7W 18D 11L across 36 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Modena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 34D 20L in their last 71 games (1.20 PPG), while Modena have gone 19W 31D 21L in their last 71 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Modena away?
Bari's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.50 PPG; Modena away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Modena?
From 8 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 64%, Modena 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bari's games and 61% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bari's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Modena tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Modena in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Bari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Bari 1-2 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.25 xG and Modena 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Modena attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 27%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Modena 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.20 PPG, Modena 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.