Bari 0-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 11 as Bari welcome Carrarese to Stadio Comunale San Nicola. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bari 1.20 PPG, Carrarese 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Carrarese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Carrarese in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 60% versus Carrarese 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bari 30% | Carrarese 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.974 / defence 1.015 | Carrarese attack 0.875 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.122. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Bari games / 10 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 4.76. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 80% | Carrarese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.65 / Carrarese 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.974 / def 1.015 | Carrarese attack 0.875 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bari (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Carrarese kick off?
Bari vs Carrarese kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Carrarese?
Bari 0 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Bari vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Carrarese part of?
Bari vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 51% chance of winning, Carrarese a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Carrarese in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bari vs Carrarese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.49
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Bari xG
Total xG
2.65
1.00
Carrarese xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Bari and 1.00 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 6D 2L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.20 PPG, Carrarese on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Carrarese in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Carrarese away?
Bari's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.20 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bari or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Carrarese in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Carrarese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Carrarese won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bari's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
3
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Carrarese have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bari 0-3 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bari at 80%, Carrarese at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Bari) and 60% (Carrarese).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Bari's games and 60% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Bari's recent games and 60% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Carrarese tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Carrarese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.00 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bari fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 51% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 21%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 30%, Carrarese 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Carrarese's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.20 PPG, Carrarese 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.