Salernitana 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Salernitana at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Udinese encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Udinese in Serie A (matchday 2). Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Salernitana have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Salernitana have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Udinese (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Udinese have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Salernitana's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Salernitana, 1 for Udinese and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Salernitana 3–2 Udinese — a Salernitana win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 59% versus Udinese 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 56% | Udinese 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Salernitana surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Udinese have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.59 xG and Udinese 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.113 / defence 1.019 | Udinese attack 0.864 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.256. Data: built from Salernitana's last 39 games and Udinese's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Salernitana 49% | Draw 25% | Udinese 26%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.06 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 3.78. Salernitana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Salernitana at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Salernitana if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Salernitana 40% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Salernitana 39 games, Udinese 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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