Juventus 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 6W 1D 3L at Allianz Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bologna (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Juventus's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Juventus, 0 for Bologna and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 28% versus Bologna 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.062 / defence 0.912 | Bologna attack 1.161 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.266. Data: 39 Juventus games / 39 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 25% | Bologna 33%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 40% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 42% | Draw 25% | Bologna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Juventus 1.53 / Bologna 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.062 / def 0.912 | Bologna attack 1.161 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Juventus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bologna xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Bologna kick off?
Juventus vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Juventus 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Juventus vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Bologna part of?
Juventus vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 42% chance of winning, Bologna a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Juventus and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Juventus 2W | Draws 2 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Juventus and Bologna in?
Juventus (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.16x) against Juventus's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
42%
2.39
25%
4.03
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.87
1.34
Bologna xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Juventus and 1.34 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus come into this having played 39 games, going 23W 6D 10L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.38 PPG from 39 outings (14W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventus's home form reads 13W 3D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games; Bologna in 62%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Bologna in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 23W 6D 10L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while Bologna have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Bologna away?
Juventus's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.21 PPG; Bologna away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Juventus or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Bologna in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
6
Draws
0
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Bologna have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Bologna?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 32%, Bologna 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Juventus and 74% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Juventus's recent matches and 74% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Juventus's matches and 74% of Bologna's.
Do Juventus and Bologna tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.34 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.06 / defence 0.91 against Bologna attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 42% | Draw 25% | Bologna 33%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.