Pisa 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 48%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Pisa welcome Udinese to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Pisa have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Udinese in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 55% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.85 xG and Udinese 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.733 / defence 1.111 | Udinese attack 1.061 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.121. Pisa's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Pisa games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pisa 24% | Draw 28% | Udinese 48%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.08. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 60% | Udinese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 24% | Draw 28% | Udinese 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Pisa 0.85 / Udinese 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.733 / def 1.111 | Udinese attack 1.061 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Udinese (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Udinese xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Udinese kick off?
Pisa vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Udinese?
Pisa 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Pisa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Udinese part of?
Pisa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 24% chance of winning, Udinese a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pisa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Udinese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Udinese in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pisa's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
24%
4.16
28%
3.54
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.17
1.32
Udinese xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
15.61
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.1 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pisa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Pisa and 1.32 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 22W 9D 9L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 13W 9D 18L from 40 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pisa have posted 2.15 PPG from 20 outings (13W 4D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 6W 5D 9L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pisa are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 22W 9D 9L in their last 40 games (1.88 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Udinese away?
Pisa's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.15 PPG; Udinese away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pisa and Udinese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Udinese?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Udinese 2-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 60%, Udinese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pisa) and 50% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pisa's games and 65% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Pisa's matches and 50% of Udinese's.
Do Pisa and Udinese tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Pisa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Pisa 0-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.85 xG and Udinese 1.32 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pisa fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against Udinese attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 24% | Draw 28% | Udinese 48%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.