Monza 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to U-Power Stadium to face Monza in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Monza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's home record at U-Power Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Monza, 0.80 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Monza have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 46% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 39% | Venezia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.825 / defence 1.044 | Venezia attack 0.700 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.247. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Monza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Monza games / 8 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Venezia 4.76. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Monza 70% | Venezia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Monza 1.50 / Venezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.825 / def 1.044 | Venezia attack 0.700 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Monza (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Monza xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Venezia xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Venezia kick off?
Monza vs Venezia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Venezia?
Monza 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Monza vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Venezia part of?
Monza vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Monza and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Monza and Venezia in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Monza vs Venezia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.82x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.70x) against Monza's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
49%
2.04
30%
3.29
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Monza xG
Total xG
2.42
0.91
Venezia xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
21.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Monza and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Monza and 0.91 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza come into this having played 46 games, going 12W 16D 18L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (23W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Monza's home form reads 6W 8D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.57 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Venezia in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 16D 18L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 7D 16L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.13 PPG; Venezia away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Monza or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Venezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Monza 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 56%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Monza) and 70% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Venezia in 35%; Venezia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Monza's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monza vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Monza's recent games and 70% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Venezia tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Monza and Venezia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.50 xG and Venezia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Venezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 49% | Draw 30% | Venezia 21%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 39%, Venezia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.