Lazio 3-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lazio face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lazio have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lazio are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Lazio's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lazio have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Genoa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lazio lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Lazio winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 56% versus Genoa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 48% | Genoa 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.96 xG and Genoa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.152 / defence 0.961 | Genoa attack 0.834 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.247. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Lazio games / 46 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 70% | Genoa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Lazio 1.96 / Genoa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.152 / def 0.961 | Genoa attack 0.834 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Lazio (58%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Genoa kick off?
Lazio vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio 3 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Lazio vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Genoa part of?
Lazio vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 58% chance of winning, Genoa a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lazio and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Lazio 3W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lazio vs Genoa?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lazio's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.83x) against Lazio's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
58%
1.73
25%
3.98
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.96
1.00
Genoa xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
41.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lazio and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Lazio and 1.00 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio's recent record stands at 22W 8D 16L from 46 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 17L across 46 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 13W 5D 4L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 22W 8D 16L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Genoa have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Genoa away?
Lazio's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 2.00 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Lazio
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lazio have won 7, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lazio 3-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Genoa?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 50%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lazio) and 41% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lazio's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lazio's recent games and 41% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.96 xG and Genoa 1.00 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 58% | Draw 25% | Genoa 17%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 48%, Genoa 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.