Inter 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza plays host to Inter versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Inter's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Inter are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Inter winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Inter and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Inter — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 46% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 58% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.50 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.429 / defence 1.052 | AS Roma attack 0.917 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.124. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.429 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Inter games / 71 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 46% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27%. Fair-value odds: Inter 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 3.70. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Inter dominate the H2H record, yet AS Roma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Inter 80% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 46% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Inter 1.50 / AS Roma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.429 / def 1.052 | AS Roma attack 0.917 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Inter (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.08
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs AS Roma kick off?
Inter vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Inter 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Inter vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs AS Roma part of?
Inter vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 46% chance of winning, AS Roma a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Inter and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Inter 6W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Inter and AS Roma in?
Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Inter's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Inter's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.72
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Inter xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
AS Roma xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
6%
16.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Inter and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Inter and 1.08 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Inter have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 50W 15D 6L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 34W 18D 19L from 71 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Roma.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Inter have posted 2.43 PPG from 35 outings (26W 7D 2L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 11W 12D 12L from 35 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inter are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 50W 15D 6L in their last 71 games (2.32 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 34W 18D 19L in their last 71 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or AS Roma away?
Inter's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.43 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Inter or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, AS Roma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inter have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
0
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, AS Roma have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Inter and AS Roma?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 54%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Inter) and 49% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AS Roma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Inter's games and 60% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Inter's recent games and 49% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inter and AS Roma tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AS Roma defy the odds to beat Inter 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Inter 0-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.50 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inter fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.43 / defence 1.05 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 46% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 27%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 58%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.69. Form was overturned, with AS Roma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.