Hellas Verona 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina have the stronger record — 3 wins to Hellas Verona's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Dec 2023, ended Hellas Verona 0–1 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Fiorentina 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Fiorentina 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / defence 1.101 | Fiorentina attack 0.881 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.148. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 72 games and Fiorentina's last 71.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.06 | Draw 3.27 | Fiorentina 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Fiorentina 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Fiorentina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.03 / Fiorentina 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.866 / def 1.101 | Fiorentina attack 0.881 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Fiorentina xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina part of?
Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 33% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.87) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.88x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 72 games and Fiorentina's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.27
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.15
1.11
Fiorentina xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.11 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 71 games, going 15W 19D 37L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.49 PPG from 71 outings (29W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 11W 8D 15L across their last 34 home games, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 34 away games (11W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 19D 37L in their last 71 games (0.90 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 29W 19D 23L in their last 71 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Fiorentina away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.21 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Hellas Verona 0-3 Fiorentina on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Fiorentina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 32% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 44% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 32% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 74% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Fiorentina 2-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.03 xG and Fiorentina 1.11 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Fiorentina attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 33% | Draw 31% | Fiorentina 37%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Fiorentina 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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