Fiorentina 5-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fiorentina and Sassuolo meet at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Fiorentina's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sassuolo's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Sassuolo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Sassuolo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 51% versus Sassuolo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | Sassuolo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.97 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.152 / defence 0.987 | Sassuolo attack 0.860 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.181. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Fiorentina games / 71 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Sassuolo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 60% | Sassuolo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.97 / Sassuolo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.152 / def 0.987 | Sassuolo attack 0.860 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sassuolo xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kick off?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Fiorentina 5 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo part of?
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 59% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.86x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 70/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.39
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.97
1.00
Sassuolo xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
3%
39.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 70 games, going 28W 19D 23L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Sassuolo sit at 1.01 PPG from 70 outings (18W 17D 35L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 16W 10D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Sassuolo have taken 0.76 points per game from 34 outings (6W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 28W 19D 23L in their last 70 games (1.47 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 18W 17D 35L in their last 70 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Sassuolo away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.71 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Sassuolo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 59%, Sassuolo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Fiorentina) and 65% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fiorentina's games and 56% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fiorentina's matches and 65% of Sassuolo's.
Do Fiorentina and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Sassuolo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Sassuolo 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.97 xG and Sassuolo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 70/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 59% | Draw 23% | Sassuolo 18%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, Sassuolo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.01. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.