Genoa 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Genoa, 0.70 for Torino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Genoa 1W, Torino 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Torino 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 42% | Torino 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.42 xG and Torino 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.875 / defence 1.147 | Torino attack 0.964 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.272. Data: 52 Genoa games / 52 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Torino 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Genoa 1.42 / Torino 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.875 / def 1.147 | Torino attack 0.964 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Torino xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Torino kick off?
Genoa vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Torino?
Genoa 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Genoa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Torino part of?
Genoa vs Torino is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, Torino a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 1 | Torino 2W.
What form are Genoa and Torino in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Torino (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.96x) against Genoa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.85
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.83
1.41
Torino xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
9%
11.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Genoa and 1.41 for Torino, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 15W 18D 19L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 18L across 52 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Genoa against 1.31 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 11D 7L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 7W 6D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Torino in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 18D 19L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 17D 18L in their last 52 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Torino away?
Genoa's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.35 PPG; Torino away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Genoa or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 3-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 58%, Torino 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Genoa) and 42% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Torino tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Torino in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Torino finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.42 xG and Torino 1.41 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Torino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Torino 37%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Torino 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.21 PPG, Torino 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.