Genoa 3-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Genoa at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Cagliari.

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Match Analysis

Genoa host Cagliari at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 34). Kick-off is Monday 29 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Genoa — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Genoa have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cagliari stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 1.00 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Genoa have won 2, Cagliari 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Genoa 1–2 Cagliari — a Cagliari win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).

Cagliari in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Cagliari 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Cagliari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.33 xG and Cagliari 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.826 / defence 1.141 | Cagliari attack 0.763 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.180. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Genoa's last 33 games and Cagliari's last 33.

Result probabilities: Genoa 43% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.35 | Draw 3.42 | Cagliari 3.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Genoa 70% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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