Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 34 as Fiorentina welcome Empoli to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Empoli have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Empoli 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Empoli trading profile (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Empoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.102 / defence 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.857 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.124. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fiorentina's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 Fiorentina games / 71 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 63% | Draw 23% | Empoli 14%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Empoli 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 30% | Empoli 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 63% | Draw 23% | Empoli 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Fiorentina 1.82 / Empoli 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.102 / def 0.770 | Empoli attack 0.857 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Empoli xG
44%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Empoli kick off?
Fiorentina vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Fiorentina vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Empoli part of?
Fiorentina vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 63% chance of winning, Empoli a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fiorentina and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 4 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.33
14%
7.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.57
0.74
Empoli xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
7.05
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
43.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.74 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 71 games, going 33W 17D 21L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.86 PPG from 71 outings (13W 22D 36L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 20W 9D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.86 points per game from 36 outings (7W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.77 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Empoli in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 33W 17D 21L in their last 71 games (1.63 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 22D 36L in their last 71 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Empoli away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.92 PPG; Empoli away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Empoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
4
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Empoli have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Fiorentina 2-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 56%, Empoli 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fiorentina) and 42% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 53% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fiorentina's recent games and 42% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Empoli tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Empoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.82 xG and Empoli 0.74 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Empoli attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 63% | Draw 23% | Empoli 14%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.