Cagliari 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Fiorentina (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fiorentina's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Fiorentina have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Cagliari's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 59% versus Fiorentina 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 53% | Fiorentina 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.39 xG and Fiorentina 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.068 / defence 1.084 | Fiorentina attack 1.097 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.132. Data: 70 Cagliari games / 70 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Fiorentina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Fiorentina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Cagliari 1.39 / Fiorentina 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.068 / def 1.084 | Fiorentina attack 1.097 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fiorentina xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 37% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Record (5 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 4W.
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.07) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.10x) against Cagliari's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.63
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.74
1.35
Fiorentina xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.35 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 70 games, going 15W 21D 34L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.61 PPG from 70 outings (32W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 11W 11D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.29 points per game from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 21D 34L in their last 70 games (0.94 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 32W 17D 21L in their last 70 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Cagliari's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.29 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Fiorentina 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cagliari) and 44% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 26% of games; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Cagliari's recent games and 44% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.39 xG and Fiorentina 1.35 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against Fiorentina attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 37% | Draw 28% | Fiorentina 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Fiorentina 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.