Bologna 1-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Inter away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 2.00 PPG, Inter 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bologna, 3 for Inter and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Inter 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.49 xG and Inter 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.447 / defence 0.885 | Inter attack 1.388 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.146. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.447 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Bologna games / 70 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 70% | Inter 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Bologna 1.49 / Inter 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.447 / def 0.885 | Inter attack 1.388 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Inter xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 1 - 0 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Inter a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 2 | Inter 3W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.45) and Inter's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.64
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.41
Inter xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bologna and 1.41 for Inter, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 33W 26D 11L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 50W 15D 5L from 70 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.11 PPG from 35 outings (21W 11D 3L).
On the road, Inter have gone 24W 8D 3L from 35 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.30 scored and 0.76 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Bologna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Inter in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 33W 26D 11L in their last 70 games (1.79 PPG), while Inter have gone 50W 15D 5L in their last 70 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.11 PPG; Inter away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Inter in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Inter 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 57% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Inter in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 57% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Inter in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Inter 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Inter 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.49 xG and Inter 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.45 / defence 0.89 against Inter attack 1.39 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inter's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.79. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.