Bologna 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 0.80 PPG versus Genoa's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Genoa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1, Genoa 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Genoa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Genoa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Genoa 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.081 / defence 0.892 | Genoa attack 1.006 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.062. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 43% | Draw 29% | Genoa 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 60% | Genoa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 43% | Draw 29% | Genoa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Bologna 1.24 / Genoa 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.081 / def 0.892 | Genoa attack 1.006 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Bologna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Genoa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Genoa kick off?
Bologna vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Bologna 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Bologna vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Genoa part of?
Bologna vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 43% chance of winning, Genoa a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bologna and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 3 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Bologna and Genoa in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.47
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.19
0.95
Genoa xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Bologna and 0.95 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 17W 14D 10L from 41 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 16L across 41 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 11W 7D 2L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Genoa's away record stands at 5W 7D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.93 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Genoa in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 15D 16L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Genoa away?
Bologna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; Genoa away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bologna or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Genoa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Genoa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 60%, Genoa 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bologna) and 35% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bologna's recent matches and 45% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bologna's recent games and 35% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Genoa tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Genoa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Genoa attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 43% | Draw 29% | Genoa 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Genoa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.