Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 2 June 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Atalanta have gone 7W 2D 1L — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fiorentina — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Fiorentina's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Atalanta have won 1, Fiorentina 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Atalanta 2–3 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 55% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 57% | Fiorentina 47%). Note also that Fiorentina surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.91 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.412 / defence 0.801 | Fiorentina attack 0.982 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.206. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.412 — their 1.91 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atalanta's last 75 games and Fiorentina's last 75.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.70 | Draw 4.20 | Fiorentina 5.77. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Atalanta 40% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 29 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Atalanta 1.91 / Fiorentina 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.412 / def 0.801 | Fiorentina attack 0.982 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Fiorentina xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 29) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 59% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 75 games and Fiorentina's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.20
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.85
0.95
Fiorentina xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
38.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.95 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 40W 13D 22L from 75 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 31W 20D 24L across 75 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 23W 5D 9L from their last 37 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 12W 9D 16L across their last 37 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.48 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 40W 13D 22L in their last 75 games (1.77 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 31W 20D 24L in their last 75 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Fiorentina away?
Atalanta's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.00 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
3
Draws
4
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Fiorentina 2-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Fiorentina 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atalanta) and 35% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fiorentina in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Fiorentina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atalanta's recent matches and 46% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Atalanta's recent games and 35% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Atalanta's recent matches and 73% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Atalanta 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Atalanta 2-3 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.91 xG and Fiorentina 0.95 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.41 / defence 0.80 against Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 59% | Draw 24% | Fiorentina 17%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 57%, Fiorentina 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.77 PPG, Fiorentina 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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