AS Roma 1-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Sassuolo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 54% versus Sassuolo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 52% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.71 xG and Sassuolo 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.452 / defence 1.031 | Sassuolo attack 0.844 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.228. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.452 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 AS Roma games / 66 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 72% | Draw 16% | Sassuolo 12%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Sassuolo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.71 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 70% | Sassuolo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 72% | Draw 16% | Sassuolo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 62% | xG AS Roma 2.71 / Sassuolo 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.452 / def 1.031 | Sassuolo attack 0.844 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sassuolo xG
62%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Sassuolo part of?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 72% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both AS Roma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.45) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
72%
1.40
16%
6.21
12%
8.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.78
1.07
Sassuolo xG
1.40
72%
Home win
6.21
16%
Draw
8.18
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
7%
15.00
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
1%
122.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.07 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 32W 15D 19L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sassuolo's form line: 18W 14D 34L from 66 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.00 PPG from 33 outings (20W 6D 7L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 6W 7D 20L from 33 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.21 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Sassuolo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 32W 15D 19L in their last 66 games (1.68 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 18W 14D 34L in their last 66 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Sassuolo away?
AS Roma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.00 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.76 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AS Roma's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Sassuolo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 46%, Sassuolo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AS Roma) and 67% (Sassuolo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Sassuolo in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AS Roma's recent matches and 54% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of AS Roma's matches and 67% of Sassuolo's.
Do AS Roma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Sassuolo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Sassuolo 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.71 xG and Sassuolo 1.07 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.45 / defence 1.03 against Sassuolo attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 72% | Draw 16% | Sassuolo 12%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 52%, Sassuolo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sassuolo's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.