St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.60 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 2 for Shamrock Rovers and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 44% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.122 / defence 0.847 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.132 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 0.998. Data: 68 St Patrick's Athl. games / 68 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 46% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 26%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 3.85. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Shamrock Rovers 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 46% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 / Shamrock Rovers 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.122 / def 0.847 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.132 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.356 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 46% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (6 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 2W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.12) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
46%
2.16
28%
3.63
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.33
0.96
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.96 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 29W 18D 21L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 35W 19D 14L from 68 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.85 PPG from 34 outings (18W 9D 7L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 9L from 34 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.51 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Shamrock Rovers in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 29W 18D 21L in their last 68 games (1.54 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 35W 19D 14L in their last 68 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.85 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.62 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 29 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shamrock Rovers 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 65% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.96 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.12 / defence 0.85 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 46% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 26%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.