Shamrock Rovers 1-3 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off is Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Shamrock Rovers have gone 9W 0D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
On current form, Shamrock Rovers have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.73 xG and Waterford 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.568 / defence 0.940 | Waterford attack 1.006 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 0.898. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack rating of 1.568 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Shamrock Rovers's last 50 games and Waterford's last 13.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Waterford 17%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.76 | Draw 3.81 | Waterford 5.92. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Waterford 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.73 / Waterford 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.568 / def 0.940 | Waterford attack 1.006 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.139 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Waterford xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 3 Waterford.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 57% chance of winning, Waterford a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.57) and Waterford's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shamrock Rovers's last 50 games and Waterford's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
57%
1.76
26%
3.81
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.58
0.85
Waterford xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
3%
33.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.85 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shamrock Rovers's scoring rate against Waterford's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
Shamrock Rovers (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
Waterford
Early Season
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Form FAQs
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Shamrock Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Waterford in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
0
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shamrock Rovers have won 9, Waterford have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Shamrock Rovers 3-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shamrock Rovers and Waterford matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Shamrock Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Shamrock Rovers 1-3 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.73 xG and Waterford 0.85 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.57 / defence 0.94 against Waterford attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 57% | Draw 26% | Waterford 17%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.