Sligo Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Sligo Rovers take on St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to The Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 50% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.743 / defence 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.798 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 0.898. Sligo Rovers's attack strength of 0.743 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Sligo Rovers games / 50 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.63 | Draw 2.56 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.35. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — St Patrick's Athl.'s lower xG of 0.63 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 10% | St Patrick's Athl. 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.88 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.743 / def 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.798 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.139 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 38% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 23% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.74x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.8%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
38%
2.65
39%
2.56
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.51
0.63
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.47
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.1 | 13.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.63 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 24W 17D 31L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (37W 12D 23L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 16W 9D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.58 points per game from 36 outings (17W 6D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 17D 31L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.58 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
7
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sligo Rovers) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.63 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.80 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 38% | Draw 39% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Sligo Rovers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.