Bohemians 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 31 as Bohemians welcome Waterford to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Waterford's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bohemians) versus 1.10 (Waterford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Waterford have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Bohemians's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Waterford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Waterford have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 46% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Waterford 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.92 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.159 / defence 1.065 | Waterford attack 1.010 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.044. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Bohemians games / 65 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 22% | Waterford 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Waterford 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Waterford 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 22% | Waterford 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Bohemians 1.92 / Waterford 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.159 / def 1.065 | Waterford attack 1.010 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Waterford xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Waterford kick off?
Bohemians vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Bohemians 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Bohemians vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Waterford part of?
Bohemians vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, Waterford a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bohemians and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
Record (6 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Waterford 4W.
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.16x the league average against Waterford's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.48
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.04
1.12
Waterford xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
31.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.12 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians's recent record stands at 24W 16D 25L from 65 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 32L across 65 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.35 PPG, Waterford on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 13W 6D 13L from 32 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 10W 4D 18L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.17 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Waterford in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 24W 16D 25L in their last 65 games (1.35 PPG), while Waterford have gone 23W 10D 32L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Waterford away?
Bohemians's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.41 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
2
Draws
5
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Waterford have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Waterford 3-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 47%, Waterford 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bohemians) and 47% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Waterford in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians's recent matches and 41% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bohemians's recent games and 47% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Waterford tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waterford in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 2-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.92 xG and Waterford 1.12 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Waterford attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 22% | Waterford 22%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Waterford 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.35 PPG, Waterford 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.