Volos NFC vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 5D 4L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.30 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 0.60 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Levadiakos, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Volos NFC.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Levadiakos have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 56% versus Levadiakos 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 51% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.28 xG and Levadiakos 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.796 / defence 1.089 | Levadiakos attack 0.640 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.010. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Volos NFC games / 35 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 49% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 19%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Levadiakos 5.26. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 80% | Levadiakos 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 49% | Draw 33% | Levadiakos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Volos NFC 1.28 / Levadiakos 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.796 / def 1.089 | Levadiakos attack 0.640 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Levadiakos xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 49% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Record (10 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 7W.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
49%
2.06
33%
3.07
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.98
0.70
Levadiakos xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.70 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 9W 8D 24L from 41 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 15L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 5W 7D 8L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.61 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 9W 8D 24L in their last 41 games (0.85 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.10 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, Levadiakos have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 65%, Levadiakos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Volos NFC) and 55% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Volos NFC's recent games and 55% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.