PAOK 2-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAOK face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 5). Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
PAOK's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAOK's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for PAOK, 2.20 for Olympiakos Piraeus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
PAOK — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 58% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.58 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.214 / defence 0.866 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling PAOK's projected output down. Data: built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.
Result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.42 | Draw 3.48 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 50% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG PAOK 1.58 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.214 / def 0.866 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.126 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: PAOK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK 2 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 41% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
PAOK's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.13x) against PAOK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from PAOK's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.48
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.91
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for PAOK and 1.33 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 41W 15D 13L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 43W 15D 11L from 69 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for PAOK against 2.09 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 34 home games (23W 5D 6L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 18W 10D 6L from their last 34 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PAOK are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.10 scored and 0.78 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
PAOK (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAOK
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 41W 15D 13L in their last 69 games (2.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 43W 15D 11L in their last 69 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
PAOK's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.18 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.88 PPG.
Have PAOK or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAOK have won 4, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 41%, Olympiakos Piraeus 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAOK) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAOK vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of PAOK's recent matches and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of PAOK's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of PAOK's recent matches and 65% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.58 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 41% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 58%, Olympiakos Piraeus 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 2.00 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.