Panathinaikos 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Panathinaikos face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Panathinaikos welcome Lamia to Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 5). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Panathinaikos stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panathinaikos's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lamia's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Panathinaikos are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Panathinaikos hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 0 for Lamia and 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Feb 2024, ended Panathinaikos 2–2 Lamia — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Panathinaikos and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Panathinaikos trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Lamia trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 40% versus Lamia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 43% | Lamia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 2.10 xG and Lamia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.179 / defence 0.710 | Lamia attack 1.073 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.710), which is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.66 | Draw 4.18 | Lamia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Panathinaikos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 50% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Panathinaikos 2.10 / Lamia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.179 / def 0.710 | Lamia attack 1.073 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lamia xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Panathinaikos 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Lamia part of?
Panathinaikos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 60% chance of winning, Lamia a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Panathinaikos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panathinaikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 1.18x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.18
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
3.14
1.04
Lamia xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
51.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.04 for Lamia, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 39W 15D 9L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 14W 21D 28L from 63 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 31 home games (19W 9D 3L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 13D 14L from their last 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 39W 15D 9L in their last 63 games (2.10 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 28L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Lamia away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.13 PPG; Lamia away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Lamia in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won Lamia 0-5 Panathinaikos.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 8, Lamia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2025: Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Lamia?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 39%, Lamia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panathinaikos) and 55% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Lamia in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 52% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 55% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 58% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 2.10 xG and Lamia 1.04 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.18 / defence 0.71 against Lamia attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 60% | Draw 24% | Lamia 16%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Lamia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.