Panetolikos 0-3 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 7 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 1.20 (Volos NFC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Panetolikos, 2 for Volos NFC and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 38% versus Volos NFC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 37% | Volos NFC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.15 xG and Volos NFC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.811 / defence 0.846 | Volos NFC attack 0.851 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 44% | Draw 31% | Volos NFC 25%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Volos NFC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panetolikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 20% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 44% | Draw 31% | Volos NFC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Panetolikos 1.15 / Volos NFC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.811 / def 0.846 | Volos NFC attack 0.851 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Volos NFC xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 0 - 3 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 44% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Record (7 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Volos NFC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.26
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.94
0.79
Volos NFC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.79 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 18D 28L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.02 PPG from 65 outings (17W 15D 33L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.15 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 12W 5D 15L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.06 points per game from 32 outings (9W 7D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.98 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 19W 18D 28L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 17W 15D 33L in their last 65 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.28 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 31%, Volos NFC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Panetolikos) and 47% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 38% of games; Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 44% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Panetolikos's recent games and 47% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Panetolikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panetolikos 0-3 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.15 xG and Volos NFC 0.79 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Volos NFC outscored their 0.79 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Volos NFC attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 44% | Draw 31% | Volos NFC 25%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Volos NFC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 37%, Volos NFC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.15 PPG, Volos NFC 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.