Panetolikos 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 3 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lamia's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Panetolikos) versus 0.70 (Lamia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Panetolikos's 30% rate and Lamia's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lamia, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Panetolikos.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Panetolikos winning.
It is worth noting that Lamia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamia in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 39% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 39% | Lamia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.782 / defence 0.817 | Lamia attack 0.643 / defence 1.447. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.447 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Panetolikos games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Lamia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Panetolikos (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Lamia's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Panetolikos as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 33% | xG Panetolikos 1.44 / Lamia 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.782 / def 0.817 | Lamia attack 0.643 / def 1.447 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Lamia xG
33%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Lamia kick off?
Panetolikos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Panetolikos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Lamia part of?
Panetolikos vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 58% chance of winning, Lamia a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Panetolikos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Record (8 meetings): Panetolikos 2W | Draws 1 | Lamia 5W.
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.78x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 2-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.71
15%
6.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.01
0.57
Lamia xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.76
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
4%
28.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.57 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 16D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.77 PPG from 61 outings (11W 14D 36L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.15 PPG, Lamia on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 11W 5D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (4W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.90 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 18W 16D 27L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while Lamia have gone 11W 14D 36L in their last 61 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Lamia away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.27 PPG; Lamia away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lamia in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Lamia have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Lamia?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, Lamia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Panetolikos) and 57% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 37% of games; Lamia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 53% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Panetolikos's recent games and 57% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Lamia tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panetolikos edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.44 xG and Lamia 0.57 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 0.82 against Lamia attack 0.64 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 58% | Draw 27% | Lamia 15%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 39%, Lamia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.15 PPG, Lamia 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.