OFI vs Iraklis 1908 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Iraklis 1908 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as OFI welcome Iraklis 1908 to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 7W 0D 3L at Pankritio Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — OFI are significantly better at Pankritio Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Iraklis 1908 — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Iraklis 1908 have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 2.04 xG and Iraklis 1908 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.071 / defence 0.911 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.771 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 0.997. Iraklis 1908 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 OFI games / 2 Iraklis 1908 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 67% | Draw 23% | Iraklis 1908 10%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Iraklis 1908 10.00. The model has a clear lean to OFI (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Iraklis 1908 | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 67% | Draw 23% | Iraklis 1908 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 45% | xG OFI 2.04 / Iraklis 1908 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.071 / def 0.911 | Iraklis 1908 attack 0.771 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.474 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: OFI (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Iraklis 1908 xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Iraklis 1908 kick off?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 part of?
OFI vs Iraklis 1908 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 67% chance of winning, Iraklis 1908 a 10% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both OFI and Iraklis 1908 will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Iraklis 1908 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Iraklis 1908?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Iraklis 1908 (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Iraklis 1908's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Iraklis 1908's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
67%
1.49
23%
4.44
10%
9.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
OFI xG
Total xG
2.74
0.70
Iraklis 1908 xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
9.73
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
1%
74.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Iraklis 1908 expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for OFI and 0.70 for Iraklis 1908, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Iraklis 1908?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Iraklis 1908 sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Iraklis 1908, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Iraklis 1908 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Iraklis 1908 are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Iraklis 1908
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Iraklis 1908 in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Iraklis 1908 have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have OFI or Iraklis 1908 been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Iraklis 1908 in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Iraklis 1908 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Iraklis 1908?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Iraklis 1908 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Iraklis 1908's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Iraklis 1908 tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Iraklis 1908 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.