Atromitos 2-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Levadiakos travel to Peristeri Stadium to take on Atromitos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's home record at Peristeri Stadium: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levadiakos are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Atromitos, 1 for Levadiakos and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 55% versus Levadiakos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 45% | Levadiakos 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.35 xG and Levadiakos 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.873 / defence 1.089 | Levadiakos attack 1.105 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.228. Data: 32 Atromitos games / 32 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 35% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 40%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Atromitos dominate the H2H record, yet Levadiakos are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 60% | Levadiakos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 35% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Atromitos 1.35 / Levadiakos 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.873 / def 1.089 | Levadiakos attack 1.105 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Levadiakos xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Atromitos 2 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Atromitos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Levadiakos part of?
Atromitos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 35% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atromitos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Record (5 meetings): Atromitos 3W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.87) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
35%
2.89
25%
3.99
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.83
1.48
Levadiakos xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.48 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atromitos's recent record stands at 13W 9D 16L from 38 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 12L across 38 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.26 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 3W 6D 9L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.26 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 7W 6D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atromitos are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.68 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 games (1.26 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.83 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atromitos and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atromitos's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atromitos
2
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 3, Levadiakos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Levadiakos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 61%, Levadiakos 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Atromitos) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Atromitos's games and 61% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atromitos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Atromitos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Levadiakos finished level at 2-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.35 xG and Levadiakos 1.48 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Levadiakos attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 35% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 40%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 45%, Levadiakos 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.26 PPG, Levadiakos 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.