Atromitos 0-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aris Thessalonikis at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Aris Thessalonikis at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atromitos stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Atromitos have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atromitos at 1.20 PPG versus Aris Thessalonikis's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Atromitos 3–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a Atromitos win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atromitos in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 54% versus Aris Thessalonikis 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.792 / defence 1.103 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.275. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Aris Thessalonikis bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Atromitos's projected output down. Data: built from Atromitos's last 48 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 48.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.92 | Draw 3.22 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Atromitos 0.94 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.792 / def 1.103 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.927 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Aris Thessalonikis xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Atromitos 0 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 26% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atromitos's attack rating (0.79) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 48 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
26%
3.92
31%
3.22
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.25
1.30
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.46
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.30 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos's recent record stands at 14W 19D 22L from 55 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 21L across 55 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.11 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 10W 12D 6L from their last 28 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 7W 7D 14L across their last 28 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.51 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 19D 22L in their last 55 games (1.11 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 24W 10D 21L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Atromitos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.50 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atromitos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atromitos have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atromitos
3
Draws
6
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Atromitos and 43% for Aris Thessalonikis.
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Atromitos have failed to score in 32% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Atromitos's recent matches and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Atromitos's recent games and 43% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Atromitos's recent matches and 64% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Atromitos 0-2 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 0.94 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.30 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.93 / defence 0.75, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 26% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 36%, Aris Thessalonikis 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.11 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.