Aris Thessalonikis 2-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aris Thessalonikis face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Aris Thessalonikis have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Aris Thessalonikis and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Aris Thessalonikis trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Volos NFC trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 54% | Volos NFC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.85 xG and Volos NFC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / defence 0.869 | Volos NFC attack 0.699 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.339. Data: 49 Aris Thessalonikis games / 49 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Volos NFC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 50% | Volos NFC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.85 / Volos NFC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.010 / def 0.869 | Volos NFC attack 0.699 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Volos NFC xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis 2 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 60% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Record (3 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 3W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Aris Thessalonikis's attack rating (1.01) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
60%
1.66
25%
3.93
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.66
0.81
Volos NFC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
44.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.81 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Aris Thessalonikis have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 26W 11D 22L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 14W 14D 31L from 59 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2.00 PPG from 29 outings (18W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 7W 9D 13L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 0.95 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 26W 11D 22L in their last 59 games (1.51 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 14W 14D 31L in their last 59 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Volos NFC away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Aris Thessalonikis
2
Draws
1
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, Volos NFC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 55%, Volos NFC 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 52% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Volos NFC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 34% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 52% of Volos NFC's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aris Thessalonikis cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 2-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.85 xG and Volos NFC 0.81 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Volos NFC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Volos NFC attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 25% | Volos NFC 14%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 54%, Volos NFC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.