Union Berlin 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Augsburg (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Union Berlin face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Augsburg arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Berlin lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 47% versus FC Augsburg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 56% | FC Augsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.33 xG and FC Augsburg 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.678 / defence 1.231 | FC Augsburg attack 1.051 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.958 / away 1.485. Union Berlin's attack strength of 0.678 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Union Berlin games / 45 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 25% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 50%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | FC Augsburg 2.00. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 30% | FC Augsburg 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 25% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Union Berlin 1.33 / FC Augsburg 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.678 / def 1.231 | FC Augsburg attack 1.051 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.958 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.92
FC Augsburg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg part of?
Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 25% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Union Berlin and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
Record (4 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Berlin's attack rating (0.68) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.05x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
25%
4.00
25%
3.94
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.25
1.92
FC Augsburg xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
15%
6.82
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
4%
27.25
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.92 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Berlin come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 8D 17L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (12W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Berlin's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (4W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Berlin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 12W 11D 22L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or FC Augsburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.91 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
4
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Union Berlin 4-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 46%, FC Augsburg 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Union Berlin and 68% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Union Berlin's games and 73% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Union Berlin and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and FC Augsburg finished level at 1-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.33 xG and FC Augsburg 1.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against FC Augsburg attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 25% | Draw 25% | FC Augsburg 50%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 56%, FC Augsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.