Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees VfB Stuttgart travel to Frankfurt Arena to take on Eintracht Frankfurt. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt at Frankfurt Arena this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfB Stuttgart are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, VfB Stuttgart in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, VfB Stuttgart 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 64% and VfB Stuttgart 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | VfB Stuttgart 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.873 / defence 0.858 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.046 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.944 / away 1.480. Data: 45 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 45 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 30%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | VfB Stuttgart 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the H2H record, yet VfB Stuttgart are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | VfB Stuttgart 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 / VfB Stuttgart 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.873 / def 0.858 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.046 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.944 / away 1.480 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.33
VfB Stuttgart xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 40% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Frankfurt's attack rating (0.87) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
40%
2.52
30%
3.35
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.86
1.33
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.33 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 17D 11L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.51 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.71 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 17W 17D 11L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.86 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when VfB Stuttgart won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
Draws
3
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 54%, VfB Stuttgart 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 73% (VfB Stuttgart). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 68% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 73% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.54 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.33 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 30%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 56%, VfB Stuttgart 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.51 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.