SC Freiburg 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face FC Augsburg.

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Pre-Match Analysis

SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg meet at Europa-Park Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

SC Freiburg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Europa-Park Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in SC Freiburg's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Freiburg have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, FC Augsburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 6 previous meetings, SC Freiburg are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SC Freiburg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).

FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 58% and FC Augsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Freiburg 65% | FC Augsburg 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 2.20 xG and FC Augsburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.946 / defence 1.060 | FC Augsburg attack 0.750 / defence 1.440. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.694. FC Augsburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.440 — this is suppressing SC Freiburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 SC Freiburg games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 56% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 4.55. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 90% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.

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