SC Freiburg 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SC Freiburg (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SC Freiburg face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Europa-Park Stadion to take on SC Freiburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 January 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Freiburg have posted 5W 3D 2L at Europa-Park Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Europa-Park Stadion.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SC Freiburg are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SC Freiburg, 1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Freiburg 49% and 1899 Hoffenheim 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 51% | 1899 Hoffenheim 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 0.814 / defence 0.893 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.118 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.808 / away 1.268. Data: 51 SC Freiburg games / 51 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 40% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Freiburg 1.44 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 0.814 / def 0.893 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.118 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.808 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg 3 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 39% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (5 meetings): SC Freiburg 3W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (0.81) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.36
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.26
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.26 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Freiburg's recent record stands at 24W 12D 15L from 51 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 25L across 51 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1899 Hoffenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SC Freiburg have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 8W 5D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.57 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 75%.
Defensively: SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 24W 12D 15L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 17W 9D 25L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.96 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.16 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 5, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Freiburg 52%, 1899 Hoffenheim 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SC Freiburg) and 60% (1899 Hoffenheim).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SC Freiburg's games and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SC Freiburg's recent games and 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Freiburg and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Freiburg edge out 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.44 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 0.81 / defence 0.89 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 39% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 31%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 51%, 1899 Hoffenheim 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.