Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome FC Augsburg to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 January 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 1.40 PPG versus FC Augsburg's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 2 for FC Augsburg and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.23 xG and FC Augsburg 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.135 / defence 0.994 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.301. Data: 51 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 51 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.23 / FC Augsburg 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.135 / def 0.994 | FC Augsburg attack 0.864 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FC Augsburg xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 62% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.23. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.76
17%
5.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.35
1.12
FC Augsburg xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.80
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
11%
9.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
2%
54.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.12 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 16W 15D 20L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 13W 13D 25L from 51 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.24 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (13W 5D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 5D 16L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 15D 20L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 13D 25L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when FC Augsburg 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 52%, FC Augsburg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 64% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 64% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.23 xG and FC Augsburg 1.12 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against FC Augsburg attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 17%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.24 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.