Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deutsche Bank Park plays host to Eintracht Frankfurt versus Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Deutsche Bank Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Frankfurt — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 51% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.06 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.999 / defence 0.830 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.777 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.767 / away 1.296. Data: 61 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 61 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 12%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.06 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.999 / def 0.830 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.777 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.767 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 64% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.00x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.78x) against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.18
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.90
0.83
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
2%
64.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.83 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Eintracht Frankfurt have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 20D 20L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Eintracht Frankfurt against 1.31 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 10D 15L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.57 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 20D 20L in their last 61 games (1.36 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.43 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 60%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 60% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 63% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 60% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Mönchengladbach finished level at 1-1 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.06 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.83 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.78 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 64% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 12%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 51%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.