Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-3 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome 1. FC Köln to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 0.70 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 4 for 1. FC Köln and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% versus 1. FC Köln 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69% | 1. FC Köln 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.144 / defence 0.992 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.715 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.332. Data: 58 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 58 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 5.26. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | 1. FC Köln 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 / 1. FC Köln 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.144 / def 0.992 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.715 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.95
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 - 3 1. FC Köln.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 54% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 4W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.70
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.69
0.95
1. FC Köln xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
30.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.95 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 18D 23L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.02 PPG from 58 outings (13W 20D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.19 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 15W 6D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (5W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.12 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 18D 23L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 13W 20D 25L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1. FC Köln away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.76 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 55%, 1. FC Köln 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 41% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 59% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 41% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 25, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1. FC Köln drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.74 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.95 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Köln outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.71 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 19%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 69%, 1. FC Köln 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.