1. FC Köln 1-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Köln (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face FC Augsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in 1. FC Köln's favour (1.70 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: 1. FC Köln 4W, FC Augsburg 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus FC Augsburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 55% | FC Augsburg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.042 / defence 1.141 | FC Augsburg attack 0.954 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.503. Data: 6 1. FC Köln games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 42% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 35%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.38 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 42% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.79 / FC Augsburg 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.042 / def 1.141 | FC Augsburg attack 0.954 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.64
FC Augsburg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln 1 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 42% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
Record (8 meetings): 1. FC Köln 4W | Draws 2 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.04) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.95x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
42%
2.40
23%
4.33
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.43
1.64
FC Augsburg xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.64 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 21W 8D 11L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg's form line: 13W 10D 17L from 40 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, 1. FC Köln are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.79 PPG from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 6W 5D 8L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.15 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FC Augsburg away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.79 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.21 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 63%, FC Augsburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for 1. FC Köln and 58% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of 1. FC Köln's games and 53% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg finished level at 1-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.79 xG and FC Augsburg 1.64 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against FC Augsburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 42% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 35%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 55%, FC Augsburg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.