1. FC Köln 4-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 5W 3D 2L at RheinEnergieStadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2021, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 65% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 59% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.82 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.065 / defence 1.139 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.940 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.183. Data: 46 1. FC Köln games / 46 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 48% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.17. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 48% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.82 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.065 / def 1.139 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.940 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln 4 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 48% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.06) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.59
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.09
1.27
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
4%
25.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.27 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 15D 19L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 18W 13D 15L from 46 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.11 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (6W 8D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.76 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 12W 15D 19L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 15L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.13 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 74%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for 1. FC Köln and 74% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of 1. FC Köln's games and 65% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 74% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.82 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.27 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 48% | Draw 28% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 24%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 59%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.11 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.