VfL Osnabrück 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Stadion an der Bremer Brücke to face VfL Osnabrück in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
VfL Osnabrück (all games): 2W 2D 4L across 8 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VfL Osnabrück, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Osnabrück at Stadion an der Bremer Brücke this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for VfL Osnabrück against 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VfL Osnabrück register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfL Osnabrück lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with VfL Osnabrück winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
VfL Osnabrück goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Osnabrück 75% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Osnabrück 62% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Osnabrück 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.804 / defence 1.267 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.141 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.207. Data: 8 VfL Osnabrück games / 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 32% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44%. Fair-value odds: VfL Osnabrück 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Osnabrück 75% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion an der Bremer Brücke • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 32% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG VfL Osnabrück 1.45 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.804 / def 1.267 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.141 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
VfL Osnabrück xG
Expected Goals
1.74
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadion an der Bremer Brücke.
What was the final score in VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Osnabrück 3 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Stadion an der Bremer Brücke.
What competition is VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives VfL Osnabrück a 32% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): VfL Osnabrück 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
VfL Osnabrück (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfL Osnabrück's attack rating (0.80) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.14x) against VfL Osnabrück's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.20
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
VfL Osnabrück xG
Total xG
3.20
1.74
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
17%
5.72
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.92
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück and 1.74 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
VfL Osnabrück come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 2D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for VfL Osnabrück is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for VfL Osnabrück against 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
VfL Osnabrück's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfL Osnabrück are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Osnabrück have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 75%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
VfL Osnabrück have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Osnabrück at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Osnabrück at home: 1.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: VfL Osnabrück have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfL Osnabrück have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
VfL Osnabrück
0
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 3 meetings on record, VfL Osnabrück have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when VfL Osnabrück 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
VfL Osnabrück have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfL Osnabrück see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for VfL Osnabrück, 100% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfL Osnabrück and 50% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Osnabrück home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Osnabrück play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of VfL Osnabrück's games and 100% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfL Osnabrück's matches and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Dominant VfL Osnabrück run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Osnabrück beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 at Stadion an der Bremer Brücke, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Osnabrück 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.74 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VfL Osnabrück beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Osnabrück attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.14 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Osnabrück 32% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 44%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual VfL Osnabrück win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Osnabrück 62%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Osnabrück 1.00 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Osnabrück win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Osnabrück (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.