SV Elversberg 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as SV Elversberg welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's home record at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Elversberg at 1.10 PPG versus 1. FC Magdeburg's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SV Elversberg, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 63% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 67% | 1. FC Magdeburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.837 / defence 1.210 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.734 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.382. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 SV Elversberg games / 61 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Elversberg 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Elversberg 1.61 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.837 / def 1.210 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.734 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
1. FC Magdeburg xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg 0 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Elversberg 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.07
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.83
1.23
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.23 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 10W 5D 12L from 27 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 12L across 27 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.30 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 2W 4D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.41 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.31 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
1
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 54%, 1. FC Magdeburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (SV Elversberg) and 38% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 38% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 46% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of SV Elversberg's recent games and 38% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SV Elversberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 28, as SV Elversberg and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.61 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, 1. FC Magdeburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.30 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.