FC St. Pauli 3-4 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC St. Pauli's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 7W 3D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Elversberg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SV Elversberg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. FC St. Pauli's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SV Elversberg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SV Elversberg in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC St. Pauli 1W, SV Elversberg 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 64% and SV Elversberg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 54% | SV Elversberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.17 xG and SV Elversberg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.104 / defence 0.757 | SV Elversberg attack 0.951 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.316. SV Elversberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 FC St. Pauli games / 28 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 15%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | SV Elversberg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.17 / SV Elversberg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.104 / def 0.757 | SV Elversberg attack 0.951 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SV Elversberg xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 4 SV Elversberg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 65% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.10x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.95x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.93
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.12
0.95
SV Elversberg xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
58.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.95 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 16W 9D 3L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
SV Elversberg's form line: 10W 6D 12L from 28 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Elversberg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.29 PPG from 14 outings (9W 5D 0L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.39 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SV Elversberg in 61%.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 16W 9D 3L in their last 28 games (2.04 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Elversberg away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.29 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg?
From 2 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 3-4 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 57%, SV Elversberg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC St. Pauli) and 64% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FC St. Pauli's games and 71% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 64% of SV Elversberg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Elversberg defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat FC St. Pauli 3-4 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.17 xG and SV Elversberg 0.95 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Elversberg outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.10 / defence 0.76 against SV Elversberg attack 0.95 / defence 1.25, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 65% | Draw 20% | SV Elversberg 15%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a SV Elversberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, SV Elversberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with SV Elversberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.