SV Darmstadt 98 3-3 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees SV Elversberg travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 7W 2D 1L at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Elversberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SV Elversberg's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 2 for SV Elversberg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SV Elversberg trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 64% versus SV Elversberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SV Elversberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG and SV Elversberg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / defence 0.835 | SV Elversberg attack 1.050 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.303. Data: 64 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 64 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | SV Elversberg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Elversberg (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SV Elversberg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 / SV Elversberg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.048 / def 0.835 | SV Elversberg attack 1.050 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SV Elversberg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 3 SV Elversberg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.05x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.41
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.14
SV Elversberg xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
6%
16.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.14 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 20D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.75 PPG from 64 outings (32W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.44 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 18W 8D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.62 points per game from 32 outings (14W 10D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.83 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 20D 20L in their last 64 games (1.44 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 32W 16D 16L in their last 64 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.94 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when SV Elversberg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, SV Elversberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-3 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SV Elversberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 47% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; SV Elversberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 56% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 47% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 31, as SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg drew 3-3 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.50 xG and SV Elversberg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against SV Elversberg attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 27%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.