SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Darmstadt 98 (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Darmstadt 98 face Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor: 8W 2D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in SV Darmstadt 98's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 2W, Holstein Kiel 0W, 3D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 97% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 64% and Holstein Kiel 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 64% | Holstein Kiel 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.266 / defence 0.779 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.888 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.337. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 24 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 10%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Holstein Kiel 10.00. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.64 / Holstein Kiel 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.266 / def 0.779 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.888 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Holstein Kiel xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
SV Darmstadt 98 2 - 0 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 73% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
Record (5 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 3 | Holstein Kiel 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (1.27) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (0.89x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
73%
1.37
17%
5.87
10%
10.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.56
0.93
Holstein Kiel xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
10.06
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
7%
13.97
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
140.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0.93 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 18D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 0.86 PPG from 58 outings (12W 14D 32L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 17W 7D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 0.72 points per game from 29 outings (4W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.34 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 71%.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 23W 18D 17L in their last 58 games (1.50 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 12W 14D 32L in their last 58 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 0-3 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
4
Draws
0
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
From 7 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 97% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 52% for SV Darmstadt 98, 83% for Holstein Kiel — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 72% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 83% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 72% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 97% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Holstein Kiel 2-0 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.64 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.93 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Holstein Kiel landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.27 / defence 0.78 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 73% | Draw 17% | Holstein Kiel 10%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 64%, Holstein Kiel 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.